Commentaire de Marché

Prédictions évolution marchés financiers 2010 : Quand le style fait oublier le fond….

Une année nouvelle qui s’annonce c’est toujours l’occasion pour les stratrèges financiers de tous bords et de toutes obédiences, de se livrer à quelques prévisions  qui s’avèrent avec le recul la plupart du temps fort calamiteuses à défaut d’ètre forts pertinentes…Néanmoins dans ce maelstrom ininterrompu j’ai relevé déjà au moins 3 « prédictions » 2010 qui ont attiré toute mon attention autant au final pour la forme que pour le fond…ce qui n’est déjà pas si mal 🙂        

PLUS DE DETAILS EN SUIVANT :       

 UBS prédit l’avenir       

Dans son dernier guide stratégique de l’investissement, UBS fait ses prévisions pour l’année à venir sur ce qui va arriver, ce qui devrait arriver et ce qui n’arrivera pas durant les douze prochains mois.       

Ce qui va arriver       

1- La reprise continuera de progresser : Même si des faiblesses systémiques continuent de jouer contre la reprise, des forces cycliques commenceront à nourrir une expansion durable.      

2- Les marchés financiers se normaliseront : Les risques demeurent élevés et les investisseurs continuent d’être craintifs, mais la volatilité commence à s’essouffler et une certaine stabilité apparaît.       

3- Des menaces géopolitiques : Le monde est toujours un endroit dangereux et la possibilité que l’on voie une menace importante naître d’un endroit chaud quelque part sur la planète est de plus en plus probable.      

4- La réforme de la santé américaine passera : Même si le débat continue de faire rage sur le sujet, la réforme Obama du système de santé sera finalement acceptée.      

5- Les taxes monteront aux États-Unis : Le président Obama va dévoiler son budget en février et il devra faire face au déficit. On s’attend à des hausses de taxes.       

Ce qui pourrait arriver       

1- La Fed restera immobile : Ben Bernanke a été prévenu des risques d’un retrait prématuré de la politique monétaire expansionniste et, même si la Fed devra éventuellement normaliser sa politique, il devrait probablement retenir ses taux jusqu’en 2011.       

2- Le billet vert aura la mine basse : Le dollar américain, tant que les taux d’intérêts demeureront bas, devrait rester faible durant l’année 2010.   

3- L’immobilier commercial pourrait atteindre des niveaux de crise : L’éclatement de la bulle immobilière a amené des pertes énormes aux États-Unis. Alors que l’immobilier résidentiel semble se remettre, son pendant commercial continue de se détériorer. Rappelons que les mauvais payeurs de ce type d’hypothèques sont souvent des entrepreneurs pris à la gorge par la récession.      


4- Un programme de stimulation supplémentaire pourrait être voté : 
      

Aux États-Unis, le Congrès pourrait choisir de voter pour des mesures de stimulation économiques supplémentaires afin d’encourager la création d’emploi.  
 
5- Une bulle dans les actifs risqués menée par les liquidités pourrait apparaître : Les banques devraient recommencer à prêter davantage et beaucoup de liquidités seront déployés dans le marché. Bien que le rallye actuellement observé dans les actifs risqués ait été mené par des facteurs fondamentaux, UBS craint que cet apport de liquidité amène le gonflement d’une bulle.   
   
Ce qui n’arrivera pas     
 
1- L’inflation ne sera pas un problème : Les inquiétudes reliées à une hausse de l’inflation poussée par le déficit sont prématurées, même si des injections monétaires massives ont par le passé causé ce genre de conséquences
 
.2- Le dollar américain ne s’effondrera pas : le billet vert, bien qu’il demeurera bas, ne sera pas immédiatement remplacé comme monnaie d’échange internationale.     

3- Les démocrates ne perdront pas le contrôle du Congrès :
Même avec les défaites électorales enregistrées durant l’année, les démocrates ne devraient pas perdre le Congrès. D’autres sièges pourraient être perdus dans les deux chambres, mais leur majorité ne disparaîtra pas.     
 
4- Une guerre commerciale ne se déclenchera pas : Il n’y aura pas de guerre commerciale entre la Chine et les États-Unis. Des modifications pourraient être apportées à la politique commerciale américaine, afin de combler le déficit, mais la situation ne devrait pas trop se détériorer.        
5- Une crise de crédit municipale ne se développera pas : Des conditions budgétaires difficiles devraient perdurer durant quelque temps encore et éroder la qualité du crédit de certaines villes. Toutefois, les municipalités devraient continuer à être capables de rembourser leurs dettes.       

source f and i dec09       

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Comme chaque année, Saxo Bank formule 10 prédictions  » scandaleuses «  pour reprendre les termes d’Alphaville (cliquez sur le lien). Pour 2010, on peut pointer la chute de l’or à 870 dollars qui rebondira à 1500 dollars en 2014, la dévaluation de la monnaie chinoise face au dollar de 5%, et la balance commerciale américaine qui deviendra positive pour la première fois en 34 ans.       

Every year Saxo Bank comes out with a list of 10 outrageous predictions for the year ahead.       

Without further ado then, we present Saxo’s latest outrageous predictions for 2010:       

1)Bunds yields will fall to 2.25%
Deflationary forces and excessive monetary policy will lower the yield on Bunds and other sovereign fixed income when the government fixed income traders refuse to buy into the “growth story” that is being told by the stock market. We believe that the German 10-Year Government Bond could be forced from 122.6 to 133.3 by the end of 2010 in a general flight to quality.
       

2) VIX will fall to 14
The markets are showing the same kind of complacency towards risk as they were in 2005-06. Although the VIX has been trading lower since October 2008, this could bring the VIX down from 22.32 to 14 as trading ranges narrow and implied options volatility declines.       

3) CNY (China Yuan Renminbi) will be devalued by 5% vs. USD The efforts of Chinese authorities to stem the credit growth and avoid bad loans, combined with the creation of several growth bubbles could ultimately reveal the Chinese investment-driven growth as being deficient. The massive, Chinese spare capacity and the economic backdrop could be a deciding factor in devaluing the CNY vs. the USD.       

4) Gold will fall to $870 in 2010 but will rise to $1500 in 2014
A general strengthening of the USD could break the back of the recent speculative element in gold. Although we are long term bullish on gold (believing it will reach $1500 within five years), this trade seems to have become too easy and too widespread to pay out in the shorter term. A serious correction towards the $870 level could shake out the speculative community while keeping the metal in a longer term uptrend.
       

5) USDJPY to reach 110
Although the downturn in the USD is rooted in irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies, we believe that the USD could snap back at some point in 2010 because the USD carry trade has been too easy and too obvious for too long. At the same time, the JPY is not reflecting economic reality in Japan, which is struggling with a huge debt burden and ageing population.
       

6)Angry American public to form third party in the US
The anti-incumbent mood is approaching 1994 and 2006 levels as a result of bail-outs and general disapproval of both the big parties. A demand for real change among American voters could propel a third new party to become a deciding factor in the 2010 elections.
       

7) The US Social Security Trust Fund will go bust
This is not so much an outrageous claim as an actuarial and mathematical certainty. The outrageous part is that social security taxes and contributions have been squandered for so long. 2010 will be the first year where outlays for the non-existing trust fund will have to be part-financed by the federal government’s General Fund. I.e. the budget trick, in reality a “fund” without funds, will be visible for the first time. Part of the social security outlays will have to be financed by higher taxes, more borrowing or more printing.
       

8)The price of sugar will drop one third
Despite a recent spike in prices caused by Indian drought and above average rainfall in Brazil, the forward curve already indicates considerable downside beyond 2011 so a return to more normal weather conditions in 2010 would make sugar one of the less inspiring commodities. Furthermore, the higher price of ethanol (which is correlated to the demand for sugar) has made both Brazil and the US lower the ethanol content of gasoline by five percentage points, consequently lowering the demand for sugar.       

9) TSE Small Index will rise by 50%
Small cap firms have been underperforming the Nikkei, but their fundamentals indicate this is a “bargain index” compared with its large-cap peer. With a price/book ratio of only 0.77 and only about 12% of the index consisting of financials, we know no other index this cheap. Positive GDP figures in 2010 could very well make this index a surprise to the upside.
       

10) US trade balance will turn positive for first time in 34 years
Last time the US trade balance was positive was briefly in 1975 after a large drop in the USD following the aftermath of the oil crisis. The USD has now become cheap enough again to stimulate US exports and punish imports. The trade balance has already improved somewhat but change takes time and once it has momentum we would not rule out a positive US trade balance for one or more months of 2010.
       

source FT dec09   

 IN FRENCH CELA DONNE CECI :     

Les perspectives surprofilées de Saxo     

LES PROBABILITÉS POUR QUE CES ÉVÉNEMENTS SE PRODUISENT SONT SUPÉRIEURES À CE QUE LE MARCHÉ A PRIS EN COMPTE, DIT SAXO     

Dévaluation du renminbi,chute de l’or vers 870 dollars et excédent de la balance commercialeaméricaine en 2010.     

Ce que prévoit la banquedanoise.     

Les dix événements extrêmes que prévoit Saxo Bank pour 2010 vont assurément conforter son positionnement de banque la plus pessimiste de l’univers.     

Honneur à la première puissance économique mondiale, qui sera à nouveau particulièrement animée l’an prochain, estime le chef économiste David Karsbol.     

Les Etats-Unis vont voir la création d’un troisième parti politique, né de la déception visant les deux grandes formations existantes après les multiples sauvetages d’entreprises en difficultés.     

Toujours outre-Atlantique, le Social Security Trust Fund fera faillite alors que la balance commerciale devrait être positive pendant un ou plusieurs mois, «car le dollar est devenu suffisamment bas pour stimuler les exportations et punir les importations». Un dollar qui devrait également subir une dévaluation de 5% du renminbi, prévoit Saxo, qui voit également le USDJPY à 110.     

Le renforcement général du dollar devrait briser les reins de la spéculation sur l’or et renvoyer le métal jaune vers 870 dollars en 2010, même si la banque demeure bullish à long terme sur l’or, qu’elle voit à 1500 dollars d’ici cinq ans.     

Dans les matières premières, le prix du sucre va s’effondrer d’un tiers, grâce au retour de conditions météo normales l’an prochain. Par ailleurs, la demande de sucre recule avec la décision du Brésil et des Etats-Unis de diminuer la quantité d’éthanol dans le carburant.     

Sur les marchés, la volatilité va reculer (avec une VIX passant de 22 à 14) et les small cap japonaises vont surperformer et leur index va bondir de 50%, dopé par des chiffres positifs du PIB.     

Des forces déflationnistes et une politique monétaire excessive vont diminuer les rendements sur les obligations souveraines, avec un Bund qui pourrait aller à 2,25%.     

NDLR : Pour rappel,  si on avait écouté Saxo 2009 aurait dû être l’année d’un S&P500 à 500 points, d’une croissance chinoise nulle et d’un baril de pétrole à 25 dollars. Ce dernier élément ayant dû causer une révolution en Iran. (NO COMMENT !!!!!)     

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Marketwatch (cliquez sur le lien) propose 10 conseils d’investissement pour la prochaine décennie. Celle qui se termine n’a pas été franchement positive avec un S&P 500 qui s’est contracté de 25%. « La bonne nouvelle c’est que depuis 1900, l’indice de référence US (l’indice cours) n’a jamais chuté deux décennies de suite « .  Grit and bear it  10 lessons for investors from a dismal decade  By Jonathan Burton, MarketWatch  dec09  SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — This is the way the decade ends; not with a whimper but a bang.   Stocks are on a short fuse, but so are stock investors. Call these past 10 years for the U.S. market « lost, » « losing, » « lapsed » or anything you want; Jack Bogle, founder of mutual-fund giant Vanguard Group, calls it a « tin » decade after the « golden » one of the 1990s. The fact is this was a dismal decade where many investors’ hopes, plans and expectations were dashed.  Heed markets, not marketing      

Don Phillips, managing director at investment researcher Morningstar Inc., offers lessons for investors from a losing decade. Jonathan Burton reports.       

It didn’t have to be this way. Between the Internet bubble and the real-estate bubble, too many of us lost sight of time-honored portfolio strategies — diversification, asset allocation, rebalancing and more — that could have made a bearish decade more bearable. Even with stocks coming back strongly this year, we’re quick to dismiss these market maxims as stale chestnuts.  After a decade like this one, it’s understandable investors would want a fresh start. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index (INDEX:SPX) lost around 25% from Dec. 31, 1999 through Friday. Including dividends, the benchmark was down about 10%, for an annualized loss of 1%, according to S&P.  It’s the blue-chip index’s first losing decade ever on a total return basis, though it has lost before on a price-only basis, noted Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor’s Equity Research. Even in the Depression-era 1930s the S&P 500 produced a 10% total return, largely due to generous corporate dividend yields that topped 5% annually versus barely 2% today.The good news is that since 1900 the U.S. benchmark has never declined on a price-only basis over two consecutive decades, which augurs for a better stretch ahead for stocks.       

Yet many shareholders won’t be in the game. Even as stocks have gained yardage, investors took to the sidelines. More than $36 billion has fled U.S. stock funds so far this year while taxable and tax-exempt bond funds added $357 billion, reports the Investment Company Institute, an industry trade group.  Investors could be fighting the last war. « We’ve already gone through a painful dismal decade, » Stovall said. « Chances are the next decade has to be better. »  Maybe so, but no matter what the future holds for stocks, you’ll be ready if you keep in mind some important lessons that were true 10 years ago and will be 10 years from now:    

 1. Diversification isn’t dead  Blending myriad stock classes insulates a portfolio from market swings, or so investors believed. Yet when almost every type of stock lost money in 2008, diversification’s detractors grew: Financial advisers and fund managers failed; they should have shorted stocks and gone into cash and bonds.  Diversification isn’t the problem; it’s how we interpreted it. U.S. stocks were billed as independent of international markets, and real estate and commodities were separate from that. In truth, they’re all equities, and subject to market whims.      

« Diversification did not fail, » Stovall said. « Our memories and our expectations failed. True diversification comes from stocks versus bonds, not stocks versus stocks, but a lot of people forgot that. »  « Diversification has been sold as something that would prevent losses, » added Meir Statman, a finance professor at the Santa Clara University in California. « That’s nonsense. What diversification means is that if you divide your money between various assets, you will not have all of your money in the crummiest assets. You are in the middle, and in the middle doesn’t mean it’s going to be positive. »       

2. Asset allocation works        

The market’s losses in 2008 shook the fundamentals of asset allocation. Stocks for the long run? Forget it. Too much in bonds? Not possible.       

In fact, your mix of stocks, bonds, cash and alternative investments affects total return more than the individual investments you choose. Moreover, a portfolio that accurately reflects your ability to handle volatile market conditions will smooth your ride down Wall Street.     

Annualized Return 2000-2009* 1990-1999
100% U.S. Stocks (S&P 500) -1.2% 18%
40/60 U.S. Stocks/Bonds 5% 13%
60/40 U.S. Stocks/Bonds 3.1% 15%
40/20/40 U.S. Stocks/Int’l Stocks/Bonds 3.7% 12%
  * As of 11/30/09 Data: Morningstar Inc.

 
 

   

For example, allocating 60% of a portfolio to the S&P 500 and 40% to government bonds would have brought 3.1% annualized returns over the decade through November, according to investment researcher Morningstar Inc. A mixture of 40% stocks and 60% bonds would have given you 5%. Combining 20% international stocks with 40% in U.S. stocks and 40% in bonds delivered just shy of 4%. Not great, but not a washout either.    

  « If you can come up with a good asset allocation to produce returns that are more consistent, investors stay engaged longer and are less subject to knee-jerk reactions, » said Aaron Reynolds, senior portfolio analyst at money manager Robert W. Baird & Co.     

3. Market-timing doesn’t work      
 
« A lot of people look back at this decade and the lesson they’re taking away is that you’ve got to time the market, » said Don Phillips, managing director at Morningstar.     
That’s a natural reaction to the deer-in-headlights shock that many shareholders experienced during the global market meltdown. « If only I’d been out of the market, » goes the refrain, loud and clear with the benefit of hindsight.     

 

   

Be proactive, not reactive. Find an asset-allocation range that works and stick to it. Hold more cash if you think stocks are overvalued. But don’t jump in and out.       

« It’s all about having discipline, » Phillips said. « In market-timing schemes that discipline goes away. You can lose sight of your longer-term goals. »       

« My advice is getting simpler and simpler the older I get, » said Ted Aronson of investment manager Johnson + Aronson + Ortiz in Philadelphia. « You were at 60% equities and now you’re thinking of going to zero — split the difference. Maybe 60% was never the right amount, but zero isn’t either. »       

4. Rebalancing reduces risk        

Periodic rebalancing of stocks and bonds is a healthy form of market timing — a foolproof way to buy lower and sell higher. For instance, if your 60%/40% stock/bond allocation has morphed into a 65%/35% split, then sell stocks and add bonds to bring your portfolio in line.       

If you had trimmed a portfolio back to your target range once a year as stocks catapulted between 2003 and 2007, you’d have been less exposed to the market in the 2008 crash. And if you’d shaved the bond portion at the beginning of this year, you’d have captured more of the rebound in stocks. No crystal ball needed; it would have just been part of your plan.       

5. Save so you don’t have to sell        

Many people had concluded that since stocks and real estate would always go up, they didn’t need six months’ or a year’s worth of cash in the bank in case of an emergency. When asset prices collapsed, so did their composure, and they sold at fire-sale prices.       

A cash reserve would have kept these shareholders in stocks, knowing they had enough to cover expenses and ride out the storm. But the fear of losing money — and the status and plans that go with it — can be overwhelming. Saving more means you don’t have to take excessive risk. For example, assuming a 4% total annualized return, stashing away another $1,000 a year equates to $25,000 of assets you don’t need to amass.       

« It’s a lot easier to save 10% than to make that through some investing strategy, » said Mark Riepe, head of the Schwab Center for Financial Research. « Socking away that money is a reliable way of building wealth. »       

6. Heed markets, not marketing        

« Mutual fund advertising tends to be a very good contrarian signal, » Morningstar’s Phillips noted. « If the fund industry is eager to promote one type of fund, especially on long-term performance, you should think of that as a warning. »       

Yet far too many investors take the bait. They buy what the smart money is selling, and vice versa — and frequently because of what they read and hear.       

« Investors face an onslaught of high-pitched and very effective marketing; how can they expect not to succumb? » said Aronson, the Philadelphia money manager. « Mutual funds are now sold like toothpaste. But there are ways to sell your wares without convincing people to do the worst thing at the worst time. »       

7. Recognize trends and cycles        

« No one knows what the future has in store, and the only thing you can do is to identify trends in the financial markets and go with them, » said Hugh Johnson, chairman and chief investment officer of Johnson Illington Advisors in Albany, N.Y.       

This time last year, for instance, Johnson was bearish on stocks, and had been since late 2007. But by April of this year he had noticed a change in the tide, with the market coming off its record lows, and began to rebuild clients’ positions in equities.       

Seeing the big picture may only go so far as the market cycle progresses. Savita Subramanian, quantitative strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, suggests that investors pick stocks, not sectors, and focus more on valuation and sustainable growth in corporate profits. « Stock selection, not sector rotation, may be a bigger driver of returns in the next phase of the market, » she noted in a recent research report.       

8. Expect the unexpected        

Global markets are more volatile, with 24-hour trading and push-button access to information. Accordingly, it’s much easier nowadays to get whipsawed if you aren’t prepared, and to wind up on the losing side of a trade if you’re not responsive to changes.       

‘You have to have a portion of your portfolio in stocks, and assess the consequences if you’re wrong.’       

— John Bogle, Vanguard Group founder       

« A lot of investors are saying ‘Let’s increase our allocation to bonds and reduce our allocation to stocks; let’s not go through that again,' » Johnson said. « You can see based on the record that’s the wrong decision. What didn’t work for the last 10 years probably will work for the next 10. »       

Bogle also is sanguine about stocks, with caveats. « What’s between a ‘tin’ decade and a ‘golden’ decade? » he asked. « Maybe a ‘bronze’ decade — a below-normal decade, but still a good decade for stocks.       

« Valuations are much better now than they were at the beginning of the decade, » Bogle added. « But history tells us where we’ve been, not where we’re going. This is a troubled economy. You’re dealing with unknowns in which you’re trying to balance returns and risk. »       

Bogle, a leading investor advocate and author of the best-selling « Common Sense on Mutual Funds, » advises investors to keep a bond position equal to their age, so a 45-year-old would have 45% of his assets in fixed-income. « You have to have a portion of your portfolio in stocks, » he said, « and assess the consequences if you’re wrong. »       

9. Keep your own counsel        

The past two years should have taught us that we need to be more attuned to the actions and decisions of policymakers, financial advisers and other experts. Ask yourself if you are investing enough, and in the right places, said Nathan Dungan, founder of counseling firm Share Save Spend, which teaches families about money matters.       

« Everybody thinks they’re an expert when the market is going great, » he said. « Stay on top of your investment plan and ask tough questions. »       

« Nobody will take better care of your money than you, » added Sheryl Garrett, founder of Garrett Planning Network, an organization of fee-only financial advisers. « Use this last decade to remind yourself of that. Get educated, get empowered and informed. »       

10. There is no free lunch        

For much of the past decade, valuations didn’t matter to stock investors. Runaway real estate, stocks at high prices, cheap borrowing and indulging expensive tastes made the brass ring seem within anyone’s grasp. « This time it’s different » was a rallying cry — until it wasn’t.       

« There was a gunslinger mentality, » Dungan said. « We used home equity loans to support our lifestyle with not enough regard for what happens if — if I lose my job, or there’s a change in marital, health or financial status. » The events of the last decade, he said, are « an important wake-up call in terms of increasing financial IQ in this country. »       

Added Bogle: « Never think you know more than the market; nobody does. It’s a matter of investing for the long term. Do your best, and don’t peek. »       

 

 

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