In other words: EM growth is first and foremost about what that epic, until recently at least, creator of $25 trillion in credit inside money is doing (or not doing as the case right now is).
So what is China doing? As per the Goldman wavefront basket showing the real time change in various economic growth indicators, something very quick and sudden:
Bottom line: either China restarts its $1 trillion/quarter credit creation dynamo, which it can’t as it is already full to the brim with NPLs and has long-crossed the point of Ponzi Finance in the Minsky diagram, or the EMs get it…. followed promptly thereafter by the DMs. After which we give the Fed 4-6 weeks before it returns to doing the only thing it does well: print.